A neutral model of edge effects

In this paper a spatially implicit neutral model for explaining the edge effects between habitats is proposed. To analyze this model we use two different approaches: a discrete approach that is based on the Master equation for a one step jump process and a continuous approach based on the approximation of the discrete jump process with the Kolmogorov-Fokker-Planck forward and backward equations. The discrete and continuous approaches are applied to analyze the species abundance distributions and the time to species extinction. Moreover, with the aid of the continuous approach a realistic classification of the behavior of species in local communities is developed. The species abundance dynamics at the edge between two distinct habitats is compared with those located in the homogeneous interior habitats using species abundance distributions and the first time to species extinction. We show that the structure of the links between local community and the metacommunity plays an important role on species persistence. Specifically, species at the edge between two distinct metacommunities have higher extinction rate than those in the interior habitats connected only to one metacommunity. Moreover, the same species might be persistent in the homogeneous interior habitat, but its probability of extinction from the edge local community could be very high.     

Predicting epidemics on directed contact networks

Contact network epidemiology is an approach to modeling the spread of infectious diseases that explicitly considers patterns of person-to-person contacts within a community. Contacts can be asymmetric, with a person more likely to infect one of their contacts than to become infected by that contact. This is true for some sexually transmitted diseases that are more easily caught by women than men during heterosexual encounters; and for severe infectious diseases that cause an average person to seek medical attention and thereby potentially infect health care workers (HCWs) who would not, in turn, have an opportunity to infect that average person. Here we use methods from percolation theory to develop a mathematical framework for predicting disease transmission through semi-directed contact networks in which some contacts are undirected-the probability of transmission is symmetric between individuals-and others are directed-transmission is possible only in one direction. We find that the probability of an epidemic and the expected fraction of a population infected during an epidemic can be different in semi-directed networks, in contrast to the routine assumption that these two quantities are equal. We furthermore demonstrate that these methods more accurately predict the vulnerability of HCWs and the efficacy of various hospital-based containment strategies during outbreaks of severe respiratory diseases.     

Interferon Gamma Release Assay in response to PE35/PPE68 proteins: a promising diagnostic method for diagnosis of latent tuberculosis

Tuberculosis control relies on the identification and preventive treatment of people who are latently infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). PE/PPE proteins have been reported to elicit CD4 and/or CD8 responses either in the form of whole recombinant proteins or as individual peptides. Very few of the PE and PPE proteins have been previously tested for responses in patients with TB and healthy donors. This is the first study to evaluate the Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) after stimulation with PE35 and PPE68. The antigenspecific levels of IFN-γ following stimulation with QuantiFERON-TB gold in-tube (QFT-G-IT) antigens, and PE35 and PPE68 recombinant proteins were evaluated in 79 children and 102 adults, respectively. Using QFT-G-IT kit, latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) was detected in 26 children (33%) and 41 adults (40%); IGRA following stimulation with PE35 and PPE68 recombinant proteins, was positive, respectively, in 36 (46%) and 32 (40.5%) children, respectively. In addition, 53 adults (52%) had positive results following stimulation with these two proteins. The sensitivity and specificity ofIGRAfollowing stimulation with recombinant PE35 in children were76%and 80%, and following stimulation with recombinant PPE68 in this group, it was 73% and 75%, respectively. Meanwhile, there is no gold standard test for LTBI. Our designed tests using PE35 and PPE68 PE/PPE proteins, two PE/PPE proteins not present in BCG vaccins, which elicit CD4 and/or CD8 responses, might be helpful for rapid diagnosis of TB and improve the detection of LTBI. However, further validation studies to determine the advantage of IGRAs using these proteins, alone or combined, are highly recommended.